Did some analysis on BTC ASIC mining profitability. Sharing in hope of any feedback.
First of all calculating mining profitability is hard because in order to do it we need to model:
- BTCUSD price (or whatever currency pair).
I will not even try to model the second as we all know there is no reliable way to do that but I had a go at the first one.
Step 1: Data
I grabbed some historical difficulty data from http://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Step 2: Modeling difficulty
Using the historical data and Matlab fit fitting an exponential model to the historical data.
Yielding this: http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#0
Difficulty on the y axis and x axis is time ending at today.
Looks like the exponential model was quite successful at explaining the data point. The 95% confidence boundaries were quite tight as well. http://imgur.com/TZHIkrC
Step 3: Extrapolation
Using the model I then extrapolated one year into the future. http://imgur.com/1jnzVub,rB2HpZc#1
Switched to Log diagram to see anything. So this is one year forward from today.
As I understand it the number of days between each change in difficulty is not constant. Because difficulty change every 2016 blocks and how many days that take depend on the total pool hash rate during that time.
This then become a problem since in reality difficulty does not change every day but every 11th day or so.
Thus I decided to create a distribution of days on a difficulty and Monte Carlo simulate by drawing random paths from that distribution.
The result was quite stable for each path. This is an example of one path. http://imgur.com/3wAkd6X
This example is modeled for a 30 GHash/s machine. As you can see most of the BTC is mined the first 200 days or so.
Finally I just assumed that the BTCUSD price for the next year will be 830. The result was that if you for example can get your hands on a 3 THash/s KNC miner today and you don't take energy costs into account you would on average yield 36 042 USD and it costs 10 000 USD. However if you go for a 36 GHash/s Cube and let it mine for a year you will make 433 USD and they retails around 1 000 USD.
Next I will look at iterating to where we break even atm on a price / Hash.
Then try and see if this can be used for altcoin mining. For example see how far we have come in the exponential growth face of capacity etc.
I made a little Octave script (which you can run on Matlab): http://txtup.co/P6KFX
The script randomly selects one of the past 360 days and looks at the price increase X days ahead. It then calculates the success rate (i.e. bitcoin price increased), the average increase, and the average Return on Investment.
These are the Results:
days horded (X): 5 succes rate: 0.68802 avarage increase: 1.3428 avarage ROI: 0.049570
days horded (X): 10 succes rate: 0.70610 avarage increase: 2.8770 avarage ROI: 0.10447
days horded (X): 15 succes rate: 0.70590 avarage increase: 4.1823 avarage ROI: 0.15472
days horded (X): 20 succes rate: 0.71836 avarage increase: 5.6579 avarage ROI: 0.21390
days horded (X): 25 succes rate: 0.72087 avarage increase: 7.1529 avarage ROI: 0.28336
days horded (X): 30 succes rate: 0.75666 avarage increase: 9.0150 avarage ROI: 0.35680
days horded (X): 35 succes rate: 0.75920 avarage increase: 11.147 avarage ROI: 0.44375
Looks like a pretty good investment to me!
Hi buildapc. I'm a math student who likes to game from time to time. I run calculations in programs like Matlab/Mathematica or languages like R that take my laptop a few days to complete sometimes. Big datasets use a lot of RAM too, so I'm thinking I'll need ~8GB or so to start with. Here's what I have so far: Part list permalink
/ Part price breakdown by merchant
My budget is $1500, including peripherals+shipping. I still need a pair of monitors, any advice there would be great. I live in the US, and I don't have any components apart from a mouse and mouse pad.
Some math/cracking work does really well on GPUs; I was thinking of getting a 6970 and then crossfiring later with a second when they come down in price. I was also considering bitcoin mining to help offset the cost of this rig a bit (I have free electricity), but the cards for that seem to be hard to get. The 6970 should handle any game I throw at it too.
Any suggestions? Does this seem reasonable? Any advice from people who use programs like Matlab regularly?
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